Saturday, January 03, 2009

Gameday Pick’em #15: Illinois State (13-0; 2-0)

The Pundits

“Redbirds flying in rare air” (OWH)
“Jays’ free throws making foes pay” (OWH)
“Creighton eager, ready for ISU men” (Pantagraph)
“Pantagraph Gameday Glance” (Pantagraph)
“Coach Tim Jankovich doesn’t mind Illinois State setting goals high” (Chicago Tribune)

The Picks

Alpha and Omega.

Through the first two months of the college hoops season, Creighton and Illinois State have proven to pace the national perception of this year’s Missouri Valley Conference. And the two teams that are currently living up to the preseason expectations heaped on both by the MVC coaches and media (CU #1, ISU #3 in the preseason poll). The teams end the MVC schedule against one another, with the Redbirds visiting Omaha on Feb. 28 to help 17,000-plus fans say goodbye to Josh Dotzler, Booker Woodfox, and Dustin Sitzmann.

But that’s the end of the year. The pressure put on both squads during that matchup will be much different than during tonight’s showdown, in essence a litmus test for both teams at the beginning of the MVC slate. ““It’s real early in the conference season and not a make-or-break game for either one of us, but it’s an important game,” Dana Altman told the local paper in Normal.

Important for so many reasons. In case you haven’t heard, Illinois State is still undefeated. And they don’t mind talking about it, either. A recent article in the Chicago Tribune featured Osiris Eldridge (15.5 ppg; preseason Player of the Year in the MVC) and Champ Oguchi (15.9 ppg; leading candidate for Newcomer of the Year) making it well known their intentions: finishing the season without a blemish. And why shouldn’t that be their goal? Isn’t it every team’s desire to drub every opponent and leave everything on the floor?

Likewise, Creighton is in a great position. For years, since Altman’s teams started appearing in the Big Dance year after year, the target on the back of the White and Blue jerseys has grown ever larger. But they are underdogs in this game, and the way Champ and Osiris talk leads one to believe that ISU is the team to beat in the Valley. It’s a perfect situation for the Jays, then, as they get to play the role of the hunter and not the hunted during their trip to Normal.

Both teams average about 76 points per game. Both teams allow opponents just about 62 points per game. CU shoots 40% from 3-point range, ISU 39%. The Redbirds grab more rebounds on average (40.5 to 35.6) but both teams are even on the offensive glass (10 per game). Creighton is one of the sneakiest defenses in the nation, swiping nearly 10 steals per game (ISU grabs 7 per contest).

The statistics are nearly even, but the methods each team employs are dissimilar. The Redbirds rely heavily on their stars to lead the way, with all five starters averaging more than 24 minutes per game. Osiris and Champ (which sounds like the name of a cheesy 70’s buddy cop show) play upwards of 33 minutes per contest. The Jays, as we all know, employ hockey-like line changes at the scorer’s table, with 10 players logging 11 or more minutes per game.

Creighton has lost the last three games against ISU; actually, they’ve been handled (lost by double figured each time). The pressure’s on the Redbirds this time and payback is on the mind of the Bluejays, so I’ll give the edge to the Hilltoppers to steal one on the road.

Leading Scorer

Creighton Otter: Cavel Witter (13)
Panon: Justin Carter (13)
Dance Cam Guy: Kenny Lawson (19)
Mrs. Creighton Otter: Booker Woodfox (21)
Mrs. Dance Cam Guy: Woodfox (17)

Margin

Creighton Otter: Jays by 8
Panon: Redbirds by 5
Dance Cam Guy: Jays by 3
Mrs. Creighton Otter: Jays by 2
Mrs. Dance Cam Guy: Jays by 7

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