Sunday, December 28, 2008

Today In The Valley (Dec. 28)

Bradley (6-5; 0-0) vs. Southern Illinois (5-6; 0-0)
1:00 p.m.
Carver Arena; Peoria, Illinois

Mention these two teams’ names to any casual basketball fan, and they’re likely to illicit a response based on recent trips to the Sweet 16 by both schools. But both SIU and Bradley seem far removed from the teams that danced deep into March. And with each school hovering around the .500 mark headed into conference play, both Jim Les and Chris Lowery are looking for answers for turning their teams’ fortunes around.

SIU owns an 8-2 advantage over Bradley in the schools’ 10 most recent clashes. Plus, the Salukis have 2 wins in Peoria over that stretch of time; the only road wins for either team in the series since January 2004. One of those visiting victories by SIU came last season in the form of a 71-60 win at Carver Arena.

I give SIU the edge in this game, even though record-wise they are weaker than Bradley on paper. Much like this morning’s article in The Southern, one would think that growing from the nicks and bruises suffered against the likes of UMass, UCLA, Duke, and St. Mary’s in non-conference play would give SIU an advantage against Valley teams that did not play as challenging an early season schedule. Plus, Lowery is 4-0 in his MVC openers as coach of the Salukis.

The Braves are the favorites in Vegas, though, giving 1.5 points to SIU. To live up to their end of the bargain, they’ll have to seize the opportunity afforded to them by the beginning of conference play: the clean slate. That’s what Les has reinforced with his team in recent days, according to the Peoria Journal Star: 'I emphasize the fact to them that it's a new season, that they're 0-0,' Les said. 'The first 11 games, good or bad, is past. The things we've learned about ourselves we need to take advantage of. Now it's a matter of applying what we've learned.'

I’ve learned never to count SIU out of the conference race. Ever. Both teams are young and inexperienced, but I think the Salukis have enough of Bryan Mullins and Carlton Fay to upend the Braves in Peoria.

~ Creighton Otter

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Northern Iowa (6-5; 0-0) vs. Indiana State (2-9; 0-0)
1:00 p.m.
McCleod Center; Cedar Falls, Iowa

It's been a bad year for Kevin McKenna and Indiana St. How bad has it been? So bad they have just managed two wins. So bad they have lost their freshman point guard Tyler Cutter to an ankle injury that will sideline him for a month. So bad another loss will make them 2-10 for the first time since the 1937-38 season. 71 years! So bad their beat writer can't even make it to their last game, at Conseco Fieldhouse versus IUPUI.

As Piv mentioned, no Valley team has lost their first conference game and went on the win the MVC title since Illinois State did it in the 1992-93 season. That’s good news for Coach Ben Jacobsen and the UNI Panthers, who are 2-0 under Jacobsen in his MVC openers. With their experienced front court, this team will go as far as their guards will take them. Johnny Moran, a freshman, has started the year playing well, recording a double-double in his first game. Ali Farokhmanesh, a JUCO transfer, has been hit or miss from the outside. A good shooting night from him and the Panthers fair well. The third man, sophomore guard Kwadzo Ahelegbe is having a solid start to his sophomore season after sitting out all of last season. Look for him to have a solid game at home as all of his double-figure efforts have come at the McLeod Center.

On a positive note for the Sycamores, they are stilling building chemistry after the return of Harry Marshall. He missed the first semester due to academic issues. In three games he's taken over the team per-game lead in scoring and assists. Jay Tunnell is averaging 11 points and nearly 7 rebounds a game. He will have to work extra hard this game to match those numbers. He'll be chasing Jordan Eglseder and Adam Koch on the defensive end. They'll need to score more than 41 (like they did in a 62-41 loss against IUPUI) to win this game.

Look for the Panthers to take control of this game early and not give ISU a chance. Hopefully the Sycamores will continue their bad play through the rest of the week (as they host Creighton on New Year’s Eve afternoon).

~ Panon

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Missouri State (7-4; 0-0) vs. Illinois State (11-0; 0-0)
2:00 p.m.
JQH Arena; Springfield, Missouri

It is perhaps fitting that the MVC game that most resembles an intriguing pro football matchup would take place on the final Sunday of the National Football League regular season.

The Illinois State Redbirds are undefeated and are locked in a virtual tie with Creighton atop the league’s scoring offense statistics (76.8 points per game). They feature two of the conference’s most dynamic players in Osiris Eldridge (15.2 ppg) and Champ Oguchi (16.2 ppg). Three more Redbirds average 9.5 ppg or more.

The Missouri State Bears’ offense is still hibernating, but Cuonzo Martin and his players more than make up for it with their defensive intensity. They lead the conference in scoring defense (57.9 ppg allowed), a mark that ranks 20th in the country. But even if they can temporarily slow down the Redbird offense, the big question facing Chris Cooks and the Laurie brothers is can they score enough on their own to upset ISU?

It helps that the game is in Springfield, but even that home court advantage isn’t as strong as it could be. The Bears faithful haven’t exactly been filling the modern JQH Arena to the rafters. Hopefully they can turn out for the conference opener and show the Redbirds what a difficult road game looks and sounds like; ISU hasn’t played many this season. Plus the Bears will be looking for a bit of retribution, as they lost three times last year to Illinois State.

I just don’t think MSU has enough fire power to overcome the Redbirds, even if Shane Laurie makes his return to the Bears lineup. Redbirds win.

~ Creighton Otter

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Evansville (8-2; 0-0) vs. Drake (9-3; 0-0)
2:00 p.m.
Roberts Stadium; Evansville, Indiana
MVC TV

Championships aren't won in December, and this matchup won't determine the Valley title on Sunday. What it will do, though, is give fans a good look at one of the MVC frontrunners in the conference title race. Additionally, this contest features two of the early favorites for Valley Player of the Year: Josh Young of Drake (17.7) and Evansville's Shy Ely (17.3 ppg) are second and third in the conference in scoring respectively, behind Creighton's Booker Woodfox (17.8 ppg).

The Purple Aces look to continue their hot start and maintain their momentum from non-conference play. The only two blemishes on their record so far are losses at North Carolina (where anyone would be lucky to win a road non-conference game) and at top 10-worthy Butler. They are 8-2, winning all eight games at home so far. One more win and they will match their win total from last season.

That's what strong senior leaders will do for a team. The Purple Aces can just look across the court and see last year's example of that notion, at a Drake squad that posted a great senior-driven run last season. Ely has taken a stronger leadership role on this squad compare to prior years. After long hours on the court and watching how winning is done by following his older sister Shyra Ely (current WNBA player), he is ready to lead and win. And after some of the Purple Aces teams from the last few years, EU fans are probably thinking it is better late than never.

Drake may come out in this game a bit rusty. Their only game since December 13 was a December 20 win against Iowa. While they had time to celebrate Christmas and take care of the first priority, school work, it is back to court work as they travel to Evansville. New head coach Mark Phelps begins his first go-round in Valley play. Looking at history, Evansville has always been a place to pick up a W. The tide has turned this year. Phelps will need to do his homework for this game.

While Drake is the current MVC champ, they won't lose that crown this afternoon. This contest should go to the wire. Drake has shown it can win on the road and Evansville hasn't lost at home. This game is too close to call.

~ Panon

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