Wednesday, December 31, 2008

Today In The Valley (Dec. 31)

Illinois State (12-0; 1-0) vs. Evansville (9-2; 1-0)
2:00 p.m.
Redbird Arena; Normal, Illinois

These two teams join Creighton as the three strongest MVC teams on paper through the first dozen games of the season. Evansville is an 8-point underdog, but comparing that point spread with the differences between these two teams’ computer numbers would make you scratch your head.

Evansville has an RPI ranking of 18, the 25th best strength of schedule in the nation right now, and a 9-2 overall record. And after a solid win over last season’s Cinderella of the MVC, the Purple Aces will try and knock off undefeated Illinois State this afternoon. If they did, it would be EU’s first road win; all 9 of their victories have come at home.

A number of Valley fans have been comparing this season’s Purple Aces to last season’s Drake Bulldogs. Evansville has been a surprise to all of the talking heads out there, with their only losses coming against a very sound Butler team and the national championship favorites North Carolina Tar Heels. But last year’s Drake squad won on the road, something Marty Simmons’ crew will need to do to stay at the top of the MVC standings.

Illinois State has a sound RPI of 64, but a strength of schedule north of 300. They are undefeated, but they looked vulnerable in their first MVC game, a road win at Missouri Sate in an overtime thriller. Led were led in that game not by Osiris Eldridge or Champ Oguchi, but Lloyd Phillips’ 16 points (including 4-5 from 3-point range). He averages 12.7 points per game for the season, joining the aforementioned All-MVC caliber players as double-figure scorers for the Redbirds.

I have said on this blog time and time again that I thought that the Redbirds’ soft non-conference schedule would come back to bite them, but I also said the Jays game against the Redbirds would be Creighton’s first undefeated and ranked opponent. If the Redbirds can come away from this contest with a “W,” then at least the undefeated prediction was true.

Picks
Creighton Otter: Illinois State
Panon: Illinois State
Dance Cam Guy: Evansville

~ Dance Cam Guy

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Drake (9-4; 0-1) vs. Missouri State (7-5; 0-1)
2:00 p.m.
Knapp Center; Des Moines, Iowa

This New Year’s Eve showdown is the first of two Valley games today featuring teams 0-1 in MVC play. In order to claim their first conference victory, each team will need to avoid the spells that plagued them in their games last Sunday.

For Missouri State, that means clamping down on defense for a full 40 minutes (or even more). In their overtime loss against Illinois State the Bears shut down ISU’s offense to the tune of just 24 first-half points for the Redbirds. They were on pace to hold ISU well below their season average for points scored, but winning would mean MSU would need to do some scoring of their own. That didn’t happen for a long stretch of the second half, when MSU went cold and made just one field goal during a 13:17 stretch. The game went to an extra period, where ISU prevailed. A close loss, sure, but a still a defeat in the eyes of Cuonzo Martin and his team. They can’t afford such a cold spell as they hit the Valley road.

Speaking of cold spells, how about the Drake drought against Evansville on Sunday? Josh Young is excused, with his 24 points pacing the Bulldogs, but from its final lead in the game (39-38 with about 14 minutes to play) to nearly the end of the game, no other DU player beside Young scored. Drake lost by 11. The problem is that while Young (18 ppg) and Jonathan Cox (12 ppg) are threats from every area of the court offensively, the Bulldogs get consistent offensive production from just one other player (Josh Parker’s 10 ppg in 18 minutes per contest).

Picks
Creighton Otter: Drake
Panon: Drake
Dance Cam Guy: Drake

~ Creighton Otter

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Wichita State (6-6; 0-1) vs. Bradley (7-5; 1-0)
7:00 p.m.
Koch Arena; Wichita, Kansas

Gregggggg Marshall and his Shox slump back to Kansas following their loss in Omaha on Sunday night, intent on improving the areas that cost them a road upset in their MVC opener. Jim Les’ Braves are probably still beaming from their beat down of longtime Valley bully Southern Illinois on Sunday.

Both teams come into tonight’s game struggling with some of the offensive execution that has come to define their programs in recent years. Bradley has always been deadly from downtown, but this season the Braves are shooting just 31% from 3-point range. That figure is a far cry from 37% in 07-08, 42% in 06-07, and even 34% in 05-06. It doesn’t look to get any better tonight against WSU, as the Shox play pretty good defense out on the perimeter.

Wichita State is struggling in another area, though. Namely, the place right by the rim. WSU couldn’t find ways to finish in the paint against Creighton, a deadly proposition for a team that lacks outstanding outside shooters. Ramon Clemente, J.T. Durley, Garrett Stutz, and A.J. Hawkins must contribute points in the post for Marshall’s team to hold its own offensively.

Picks
Creighton Otter: Bradley
Panon: Wichita State
Dance Cam Guy: Bradley

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Southern Illinois (5-7; 0-1) vs. Northern Iowa (6-6; 0-1)
7:00 p.m.
SIU Arena; Carbondale, Illinois

Chris Lowery has to be licking his chops to get back on the court after his team’s loss against Bradley to start Valley conference play. C-Lo had to manage his team through two days of practice before getting back to action, a daunting task for a roster full of guys new to Valley play (just ask the Jays after their Valley opener last season). Their next game probably couldn’t have come against a better opponent, as UNI has not won in Carbondale in 11 years.

Besides the New Year, there will be other reasons to celebrate in SIU Arena tonight. On the Saluki side of the ball, Bryan Mullins is 5 assists away from breaking SIU’s all-time assist mark held by Wayne Abrams. An average night for Mullins and he will be etching his name in the record books in front of the home crowd. Either way, he should get the record tonight or at home against Drake on Sunday.

On the Panther side of the ball, Ben Jacobsen can’t wait for the New Year. His team is at .500 and on the verge of falling to 0-2 in the conference. It’s hard enough to win the Valley losing your first game of the conference (last done in 1992-93). One can’t imagine how hard it would be to dig out of an 0-2 hole.

There is a chance they overlooked the 2-9 Sycamores in their Valley opener, something that was evident with a 21-point first half lead for Indiana State. A career-high 28 points from Kwadzo Ahelegbe wasn’t enough for the Panthers as they lost by 1 point in double overtime, which has been the early season shocker in the Valley. A new year could bring better luck for the Panthers but it may have to start next Wednesday, a night after visiting the Qwest Center.

Picks
Creighton Otter: Southern Illinois
Panon: Southern Illinois
Dance Cam Guy: Southern Illinois

~ Panon

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