Sunday, December 28, 2008

Gameday Pick’em #13: Wichita State (6-5)

The Pundits

“Shockers nurture young ones” (OWH)
"CU looks to keep rolling" (OWH)
“WSU faces big Creighton hex” (Wichita Eagle)

The Picks

On paper, this game looks to be a no-brainer benefiting the Bluejays. Of Wichita State’s probable starters, only one (Ramon Clemente) has much of what you’d call Division I experience. They start two freshmen and two transfers. Doesn’t sound like the type of roster capable of snapping a 15-game losing streak in Omaha.

The Shox don’t crack 64 points per game on average, while the Jays are tops in the conference in scoring per game (76.9 ppg). WSU is toward the bottom of the conference in 3-point shooting and dead last in free throw shooting.

But the hated rivals in Gold and Black do something very well, something that should have Jays fans (and coaches, probably) salivating. They can rebound. In fact:


  • They lead the MVC in rebounding margin (+7.7 per game)

  • They average 13.3 offensive rebounds per game, which ranks 85th in the country (1st in the MVC)

  • They average 23.4 defensive rebounds per game, which ranks 172nd in the country (5th in the MVC)

Conversely, the Jays:

  • Are 8th in the conference in rebounding margin (-2.4 per game)

  • Average 10.4 offensive rebounds per game, ranking 266th in the country (6th in MVC

  • Average 22.6 defensive rebounds per game, ranking 216th in the country (9th in the MVC)

These two schools have played each other 60 times since 1980, with Creighton owning a 37-23 advantage in the win column. However, the average score during those 60 games is CU 68, WSU 67. Creighton won the past two meetings, by 2 points in Omaha and by 3 in Wichita last season. And not counting a 71-54 romp during the White Out Against Wichita in 2007, the winning team in recent years prevailed by an average of just 2 points.

As long as the Jays are giving opponents second chances on the glass, and as long as they fail to put away games in nail-in-the-coffin fashion, I’m not sure I believe in their ability to throttle the Shox at home, regardless of who Gregggggggg Marshall is putting on the court.

The Jays are the better team, but as is the case in any conference game they can’t let up for fear that the Shox will seize some momentum and find a way to win.

Who am I kidding? Creighton should kill this year’s version of the Shox, especially at home. Put me in the books as saying Booker and the boys will put a pasting on Marshall and his young wheat shockers.

Enough of this nonsense. To the picks!

(Various members of Qwest Center Section 123 will pick ‘em each and every game on this site. We’ll keep track of the winner each game, and at the end of the year you’ll be able to find one of us three buying a round or two of expensive Scottrade Center brews at Arch Madness.)


Leading Scorer

Creighton Otter: Cavel Witter (13)
Dance Cam Guy: Witter (15)
Panon: P'Allen Stinnett (17)
Mrs. Creighton Otter: Stinnett (15)
Mrs. Dance Cam Guy: Kaleb Korver (16)

Margin

Creighton Otter: Jays by 9
Dance Cam Guy: Jays by 12
Panon: Jays by 11
Mrs. Creighton Otter: Jays by 4
Mrs. Dance Cam Guy: Jays by 8

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