Gameday Pick ‘em #20: Evansville (12-5; 4-3)

The Pundits
“Altman: Bluejays must find identity” (OWH)
"3 seniors let Aces draw to success" (OWH)
“Aces fever on the rebound” (Courier Press)

The Picks

The times are few and far between when I represent the logical, realistic Jays fan on this blog. I look at much of my life through blue-tinted glasses; I was brought up around all-things Bluejays, and that’s who I am. But for just a few fleeting moments, let’s take a look at the facts.

• Evansville and Creighton are tied in the middle of a muddled Missouri Valley Conference right now, each touting 4-3 records into tonight’s nationally televised (albeit on ESPNU) game in Indiana.
  
  
• The Purple Aces have the kind of experience that usually translates into victories when things get tight and a game is close in the waning seconds.
  
  
• After a solid first half against Southern Illinois, the Bluejays have played about 7 inspired minutes of basketball out of the last 65 minutes of action (including the second half of the win against SIU and the let’s-not-speak-of-it-again effort at Wichita State on Saturday).
  
  
• To win on the road, a team must be stout defensively and control the boards (or at least stay even, for goodness sake). The Jays do neither with any consistency, yet they are 2-2 on the road in the MVC so far. They were atrocious in both these aspects of the game against the Shockers. In only a few short days following that outcome, can they overcome the Aces?
  
  
• Anything is possible, I guess. I mean, Evansville even lost a home game this year. In fact, this is the end of a three-game home stand for the Purple Aces, during which they lost their first home contest of the season (to league-leading Northern Iowa). Creighton starts a three-game home stand after they get back from Roberts Stadium; can they bring home a win and set the stage for three winnable games at The Phonebooth?
  
  
• The Aces have a go-to scorer, Shy Ely, who is near the top of scoring in Valley play (16 ppg). He also grabs 7 rebounds per contest. They have a long-range specialist, Jason Holsinger (10 ppg), who, when hot, can hit 3-pointers from anywhere on the court. They have another complementary scorer to play alongside Ely, Nate Garner (10 ppg, 5 rpg), someone who can make defenses pay for turning too much attention Shy’s way. And they have a young guard, Kaylon Williams, who is posting incredible “game manager” numbers in MVC play (6 assists per game, a 2-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio, and 6 rebounds per game).
  
  
• The Jays counter with P’Allen Stinnett’s 15 ppg in conference play (last Saturday’s stinker of an effort notwithstanding), Booker Woodfox’s 14 ppg in Valley games, Cavel’s 10 ppg, and another game manager, Josh Dotzler, who can dish dimes with the best of them (almost 4 apg). The first three Jays, especially, are great free throw shooters, too.
  

As a fanatic, it pains me that statistically we are equals with a team that for the better part of a decade have resided near or at the bottom of the MVC standings year in and year out. But as a realist, I know that in order for the Jays to become the team they can (and hopefully will) be, Dana Altman’s crew needs to steal a game or two on the road. They might be favored by Vegas, but they're underdogs as they hit the road tonight.

Leading Scorer

Creighton Otter: Booker Woodfox (15)
Dance Cam Guy: Woodfox (19)
Panon: Cavel Witter (16)
Mrs. Creighton Otter: Justin Carter (14)
Mrs. Dance Cam Guy: Witter (18)

Margin

Creighton Otter: Jays by 6
Dance Cam Guy: Jays by 15
Panon: Jays by 4
Mrs. Creighton Otter: Jays by 3
Mrs. Dance Cam Guy: Jays by 5