Arch Madness 2007

Now this is a white out, huh?

It is late morning on the Thursday of Arch Madness, and instead of driving past numerous truck stops and “Adult XXX Movies” shacks on I-29 and I-70 on my way to the Gateway City, I’m sitting at home waiting for the powers that be to open I-29 — it has been closed due to blizzard conditions in southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa.

So, does that mean I won’t be able to watch the two play-in games tonight like I wanted to? Yes. Does it mean that the first St. Louis beer will be later and later and later in the evening now? Unfortunately, yes. Does this mean my hotel room in downtown St. Louis might be empty tonight instead of full of coolers, bags full of clothes, and overflowing trash cans filled with junk food wrappers? Argh, yes.

Five of us planned to leave this morning around 9 or 9:30 a.m., putting us into St. Louis in plenty of time to check in at the hotel, have a couple of brews and some dinner, and mosey on over to the Scottrade Center to catch the two “first round” Valley tournament games.

Alas, that won’t be happening, but just like every trip to St. Louis, there will no doubt be some timeless stories that come from this weather setback. Also, this weather is a good omen for the Jays.

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In 2002, as a junior in college, two carloads of friends and I decided to hit the tournament via the road. The only times I’ve flown to the Gateway City for the tournament, the Jays have lost before the championship game, and we vowed in 2002 to see three wins. But, a storm was brewin’ throughout all of southeastern Nebraska and southwestern Iowa, and it was heading straight for Missouri.

So, did we stay home? No! We took a page from the REO Speedwagon song book and started “ridin’ the storm out”. We left just as things were getting bad in Omaha, and led the storm directly to St. Louis. We left 30 degrees and snowing for 55 degrees and drizzle, but that Friday night in St. Louis was one of the more memorable evenings from my college career (at least for me it was, as I’m sure some of the people in our room don’t exactly remember much from that night).

ANYWAY, we woke up Saturday morning in St. Louis and there was snow falling just outside of our hotel room next to the Arch, and the only thing falling more frequently that weekend were baskets from Kyle Korver and Terrell Taylor and the rest of the Bluejays. Creighton won their three games, clinched a spot in the NCAA tournament, and prepared to take on the Florida Gators. The rest, as they say, is history.

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The Jays were the #2 seed that year, and they beat Southern Illinois for the Arch Madness title. The same can happen this year, although it will take two wins against a bracket containing 3 of the Jays’ 5 conference losses just to get to the championship game. Will it happen? I don’t know. Can it happen? You better believe it.

For whatever reason, Dana Altman’s teams thrive in tournament situations. From the MVC tournament championships in 1999, 2000, 2002, 2003, and 2005, to the tremendous showings recently in the Guardians Classic and Rainbow Classic, the Jays have won their fair share of tournament titles. In fact, Creighton has not failed to win a league tournament title in back-to-back years since 1997 and 1998. Creighton is 13-2 in their six previous appearances in the tournament as a #2 seed, including those titles in 1999, 2002, and 2003.

Standing in the Jays’ way, however, is a bracket full of tough match-ups. Not only has the Missouri Valley Conference lived up to my billing early this season as the “Valley of Death” during the regular season, but the tournament could be more of the same. Every possible match-up features teams who have struggled against one another at least once during league play. While the seeds are aligned for another classic Creighton-Southern Illinois championship game, there is a strong possibility that the Jays and Salukis might be watching the championship game from the hotel.

So, with that I give you my tournament predictions. Last year I was pretty far off, but that’s because I’m biased. And, like last year, I wear my Bluejay Bias on my sleeve (and in this blog).

Thursday Night: “First Round” Games

Also known as the play-in games, the winners of these two games will take on Southern Illinois (12 p.m. Friday) and Creighton (6 p.m. Friday), respectively.

The home team won both games in this season’s series between Evansville and Drake. The Bulldogs won last week in Des Moines by 3 points, and the Purple Aces won by 21 points earlier in the season.

My pick here is Evansville, as their guard play and low post play is more consistent than the Bulldogs. Drake’s pressure defense will cause some Purple Ace turnovers, but I think Evansville will have enough tonight to hold off the ‘Dawgs. This game has direct implications for Creighton, as the Jays will take on the winner. Creighton dropped road games to both of these teams, most recently Illinois State last week (and Indiana State earlier in the year). The road team won both meetings between these teams this season, with Illinois State spanking the Sycamores by 15 points on Valentines Day. Indiana State won in Normal by 4 points early in January.

This marks a tumultuous time of the year for Indiana State coach Royce Waltman, as has been the case seemingly every year since 2001. They Sycamores are playing on the first night of the tournament yet again, and things don’t bode well for them in tonight’s match-up, either. Illinois State has been playing well as of late, having won 4 of their last 5 games, and they’ll make it 5 out of 6 tonight. Redbirds win, ending Waltman’s career as Indiana State head coach, and will meet the Jays for the second time in two weeks Friday night.

Friday: Quarterfinals
Southern Illinois held off the Purple Aces on Senior Day in Carbondale last weekend, and Evansville has a history lately of playing the Salukis pretty well regardless of where the game is.

SIU is steaming hot, with a long win streak intact and looking to defend their 2006 Arch Madness championship. Evansville’s Matt Webster (second-team All-MVC) vs. SIU’s Randall Falker (first-team all-MVC) is an intriguing match-up, but it will be SIU’s pressure on the perimeter, led by league Player of the Year Jamaal Tatum and All-defensive team member Tony Young, that will pave the way for SIU to move to the semifinals.

This game proves to be a great showdown between two different styles: the motion, long-range shooting offense of Bradley versus the feed-the-post, twin towers style of Northern Iowa. UNI beat Bradley last week in Peoria, all but ending the Braves’ at-large NCAA tournament hopes, completing the season sweep of the Braves (they won by 11 points earlier in the year).

As is usually the case in St. Louis, it is really difficult to beat a good team three times in a season. This game should be close, but the difference will be the guard play. If Will Franklin and Daniel Ruffin can control the basketball and get some shots to go down, they’ll be in pretty good shape against a UNI backcourt with just one player (point guard Brooks McKowen) who has seen significant playing time in Arch Madness. I pick the Braves to avoid the 3-0 record against the Panthers, setting up a Bradley-Southern Illinois match-up in the semis.

Not much to write here, surprisingly enough. Do you think Creighton wants a little payback against the Redbirds? The Jays were cruising to an at-large bid “lock” before setbacks to Drexel and at Illinois State last week put the Jays squarely on “the bubble”. I’m biased, like I said, but I think regardless of who the Jays play in this game they will pull away at the end. Just like seemingly every Jays game this season in league play, this game will be close but the Jays will win by double-digits, putting them in the semifinals against …

This will be the best game of the night. Wichita State still has the talent to get on a roll and win three games in three days. They’ve severely underachieved for the majority of the season, and they are used to a tournament atmosphere. However, they haven’t won a title in St. Louis in quite awhile, and it isn’t going to happen this year, either.

But that doesn’t mean they won’t beat Missouri State, a team that just like Creighton is fighting for their NCAA lives. The Bears were left out of the tournament last year after losing early in Arch Madness even though they finished the season with an RPI of 21, marking the lowest-ranked RPI team ever to not be invited to the Big Dance.

Barry Hinson and Blake Ahearn and the rest of the Bears want to leave no doubt that they deserve a bid, and obviously the best way to wrap up an invitation is to win the whole darn thing.

That being said, as a Jays fan I want this game to be a knock-out, drag-out affair that lasts into the wee hours of morning. I think it will be a repeat of last week’s MSU win, but only in style of play. My first upset of the tournament: Wichita State beats Missouri State, leaving the Bears biting their paws until Selection Sunday.

Saturday: Semifinals

Southern Illinois vs. Bradley

Creighton vs. Wichita State

We’re getting ready to go test the roads, so I’m make this short. Do I think Bradley will give the Salukis all they can handle? Yes. Do I think that Southern Illinois is going to lose before Saturday? Nope. In a three-games-in-three-days tournament, defense reigns. And defense, ladies and gentlemen, is the name of the game for the Salukis. SIU wins a close one.

I would be hypocritical to pick Wichita State here, and I honestly don’t think my fingers will allow me to type “Creighton los…” see, I couldn’t do it. Jays win a physical, hard-fought game, with Anthony Tolliver being the difference against the smallish Shocker front line.

Sunday: Championship game

All you need to know is that Dana Altman is undefeated in Arch Madness championship games. It won’t be 80-46 like 2003, but the Jays win. Everyone is happy. Everyone can celebrate.

And God will cooperate, with sunny skies for the celebratory drive home across the Show Me State Sunday.

And with that, I’m going to get into my sled and hit the highway.

Go Jays!